Trump and Clinton clash over national security

And Silver's own FiveThirtyEight Polls-plus forecast (often updated several times a day) right now shows Clinton with better than two-to-one chances (67.5% to 32.5%) of beating Trump. Both are within the margin of error.

Previous polls had shown a surprisingly close race in Republican-leaning Kansas, but a poll from the Washington Post and SurveyMonkey shows Trump with a comfortable lead in the Sunflower State.

The poll, which compares the candidates' chances in all 50 states ahead of the November general election, gives Clinton a large edge in electoral votes over her GOP rival.

Trump scores 126 electoral votes, according to the poll, while 168 electoral votes are considered a toss-up.

The new poll also shows strong support for Trump among senior citizens.

Most recently, Clinton's convention propelled her to an eight-point lead among registered voters in an early-August CNN/ORC Poll.

Clinton held a rare news conference aboard her new campaign plane on Monday as both candidates competed for votes in swing state Ohio.

And they found a big weakness in Trump's campaign - a low number of college-educated, white voters, especially women. If Trump were to win by 12 percentage points in SC, he would exceed the 11-point margin of victory that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney had in 2012.

Donald Trump took a lead in the CNN/ORC national survey released Tuesday morning.

Among independents, Trump has more sway with 49% and Clinton getting just 29% and the rest backing Johnson or Stein. Clinton had a significant advantage among African-American voters, earning 76 percent of their support, compared to Trump's 14 percent.

Regardless of whom voters said they would support, almost six in 10 said they expect Clinton to win the November general election, while just over a third said they expect Trump to claim victory, the survey found.

Some 59% said they think Clinton will be the next president, and just 34% expect Trump to emerge victorious. The emails, later revealed by WikiLeaks, showed some DNC officials favoring Clinton over her primary opponent, Bernie Sanders - who has since endorsed Clinton for president.

The first presidential debate on 26 could be the inflection point in the campaign.

With 168 electoral votes up for grabs, the poll suggested Clinton and Trump will focus on historic battleground states like OH and Florida, as well as places like Texas, Georgia and North Carolina where they face essential dead heats.

CNN said the change comes from gains among voters made by Trump rather than a drop in support for Clinton.

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