What do the exit polls for state elections mean for investors?

Arvind Kejriwal

Arvind Kejriwal

With the dangers of polarisation looming over the Hindi heartland of UP, considerable movement of narcotics in Punjab, and a not so optimum an environment in Manipur, the elections were a challenge.

BJP has fielded 66-year-old leader Rajinder Mohan Singh Chhina, who is up against Congress' Gurjit Singh Aujla (44) and Aam Aadmi Party's Upkar Singh Sandhu (63).

In the 2012 assembly polls, the Congress had won 32 seats, BJP 31 and "Others" 6. Today's Chanakya is forecasting 285 seats for the BJP, with a margin that could even take it nearly to 300, in the 404-strong assembly. This Exit Poll also says SP-Congress will manage to get around 110-130 seats allowing BSP to secure just 57-74 seats.

Away from the hustle and bustle of the exit polls, the SAD-BJP alliance is confident of defying the pollsters "like in 2012", when it proved the surveys wrong.

In Uttarakhand, it gave the BJP a majority with 43 seats followed by the ruling Congress with 23.

"All the state assembly elections that have happened since 2014 have shown regional parties gain significantly and a similar trend is visible in the five states that went to polls".

If the numbers hold, the BJP will need 40 more seats to form government, raising the possibility of a post-poll alliance with the BSP, despite party chief Mayawati's protestations to the contrary before the election.

However, according to India Today-Axis exit polls, Congress will form the government with 30-36 seats while BJP will form opposition with 16-22 seats. Similarly News X-MRC predicted a tie between Congress and AAP by indicating that they'll get 55 seats each.

Jennifer A Monserrate of the Congress won with the highest margin of 1,151 votes among the women contestants, but was also the lowest margin victor in the overall contest. Of the 403 Assembly berths in UP, India Today-Axis projected 251 to 279 seats to the BJP, 88-112 to SP-Congress and 28-42 seats to BSP.

India TV-CVoter exit poll: AAP is expected to take power in Punjab. India TV C-Voter put its money on AAP by giving the party 59-67 seats, while projecting 41-49 seats for the Congress.

Battle for the states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur has kept everyone on the edge of their seats. For this he blamed both the ruling BJP-SAD and the Congress.

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