There's only a 5 percent chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, according to a forecast drawn from a statistical analysis of 150 countries' population and economic growth. "It shows a mere 1 percent chance that warming could be at or below 1.5 degrees [Celsius], the target set by the 2016 Paris Agreement".
Dramatic consequences. Having an average temperature above the Paris Accord ceiling would have dramatic consequences for the population, said Adrian Raftery, lead author of the study and a professor at the University of Washington.
"This is due to the fact that much of the expected future population growth will be in Africa, in countries whose carbon emissions are now very low", said Raftery.
"Our analysis is compatible with previous estimates, but it finds that the most optimistic projections are unlikely to happen", Raftery says. "We're closer to the margin than we think".
The new paper focuses instead on three quantities that underpin the scenarios for future emissions: total world population, gross domestic product per person and the amount of carbon emitted for each dollar of economic activity, known as carbon intensity. Statistical projections were made on the basis of data for the last 50 years.
Their calculations were not based on worst-case-scenario predictions of unabated energy use, the team said, and provided for ongoing provision for efforts to curb fossil fuel use.
The biggest factor was found to be carbon intensity, which has been dropping in recent years due to increased energy efficiency across industries. At the moment, Africa is the least carbon-intensive continent.
There was a 13% chance that the Earth was already committed to 1.5C warming by 2100, said the authors led by Dr Thorsten Mauritsen, from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany. The researchers also found that if fossil emissions continue for 15 more years, the planet's global temperature could rise as much as 3 degrees Celsius. The research shows a 5 percent chance that global warming will be at or below that level by the end of this century.
Meanwhile, Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University who had no associations with the research, said, "I agree that staying below 2-degrees Celsius and 1.5-degrees Celsius are unlikely and very, very unlikely, respectively".
A study by worldwide scientists has dropped the bombshell that temperature rise around the globe is nearly inevitable as the industries and vehicles emit carbon fumes relentlessly along with skyrocketing population growth in recent years. "It is this committed warming that we estimate".
Researchers found carbon intensity was the most important factor in predicting future warming. "Future carbon dioxide emissions will then add extra warming on top of that commitment". So as climate change deniers like President Trump, EPA chief Scott Pruitt, and many GOP lawmakers put their money on taking little to no action and somehow escaping devastating warming, in truth it will take a Herculean global effort to avoid costly and harmful impacts.