United States oil output surge dominating global crude growth, IEA says

IEA executive director Dr. Fatih Birol said the United States is set to put its stamp on global oil markets for the next five years.

But the price rebound has also encouraged US shale companies to pump more oil, and total USA production has topped 10 million barrels a day and toppled near-half-century record in November. Weekly data from the U.S. Department of Energy showed weekly U.S. crude production hit a record high last week of nearly 10.4 million barrels per day (bpd).

But the price rebound has also encouraged US shale companies to pump more oil, putting downward pressure on oil prices and threatening to undermine OPEC's strategy.

Brent crude futures were up 12c on the day at $65.66 a barrel by 3.04pm GMT, having risen from a session low of $65.30, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 3c at $62.60, off an earlier high of $63.28 a barrel.

This strategy worked to some extent as many shale companies went broke, but the fiscal pain became too great for Saudi Arabia, and they worked with other OPEC members and Russian Federation to take supplies off the market to support prices.

The OPEC and non-OPEC production cut that began at the beginning of previous year has worked in the cartel's favor.

"The U.S. will overtake Russian Federation to become the world's largest oil producer by 2023, accounting for most of the global growth in petroleum supplies, a top industry monitor said Monday", writes WSJ. Output hit a record 10.057 million bpd in November, according to the US Energy Department.

The IEA predicts that growth in USA oil production will meet 80 percent of the growing global demand over the next three years, with Canada, Brazil and Norway able to supply the rest.

Russian oil expert Ivan Priobrazhenskiy has commented on the negative outcome of curbing oil production (the OPEC+ deal). Members of OPEC will meet with shale producers on Monday evening at a dinner for the second year in a row, though Barkindo said that price levels and production will not be discussed.

"US shale production is going to continue growing strongly", said Mike Loya, the Houston head of Vitol Group, the world's top independent oil trader.

The energy group says the USA will supply enough oil to meet 80 percent of the world's growing demand over the next five years. This time they want to make sure the USA shale industry is part of the solution. There will be strong global demand as well as increased cost due to steal tariffs. The United States is well positioned to supply individual USA refiners with heavy crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), should it find that new sanctions or internal strife means those refiners have to abandon Venezuelan heavy oil imports.

Despite the pipeline shortages, Canada will be among the countries leading growth in oil output over the next few years, taking its overall production to 5.6 million barrels per day by 2023, compared to 4.8 million bpd this year. At the same time, growth in gasoline and diesel usage will be held back by fuel efficiency improvements and declining consumption in the developed world, the IEA said.

At the same industry gathering a year ago, Saudi Arabia's oil minister said his country should not have to underwrite the investments of others.

The price war sparked an industry recession, and oil prices plunged to a low of $27 a barrel.

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