USA will fail to achieve zero oil exports target: Iran

Oil tanker

Oil tanker

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC production to grow by 2 million bpd in 2018 and 1.8 million bpd in 2019, characterized by "relentless growth led by record output from the U.S".

The contract will be based on the differential of the four crudes to the dated Brent benchmark price and will represent 1,000 barrels of oil.

Washington will consider waivers for Iranian oil buyers such as India but they must eventually halt crude imports from Tehran, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week in New Delhi after a meeting of high level officials.

Even though geopolitical turmoil such as that of the U.S./Iran conflict has understandably inspired many experts to forecast grim scenarios for global crude supplies, the IEA report strongly suggests that worldwide producers are more than capable of dealing with shortfalls.

The US has surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation to become the world's largest crude oil producer this year.

Oil ETFs should not count on a bump from the drop off in oil supply out of Iran due to US economic sanctions as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries quickly stepped in to fill in the gap, raising global supply to a record high.

Here are the production numbers of the OPEC countries in the past two months.

Iran has the world's fourth-largest reserves, and many countries - particularly in Asia - rely on its supplies and have refineries designed for its particular flavour of heavy crude.

Oil prices have risen faster than anticipated in the first half of the year, hitting a 3.5-year high above $80.

In August, rising output in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia offset declines in Iran, which is about to face new US sanctions that are already hurting Iranian exports, and in Venezuela.

"The US is attempting to bring Iran's oil sales to zero by imposing banking and transportation restrictions, and the administration, despite all the difficulties and hardships, is seeking solutions to quash their [US] plans", Shana quoted Jahangiri as saying.

In the short-term, experts suggest supply will be a problem.

The loss of Iranian oil to the market as refiners are cutting or halting purchase ahead of USA sanctions in November is also raising concerns about supply.

While OPEC production has increased since then, Saudi Arabia has added less crude than it initially indicated.

Still, Cohen said it would take a "perfect storm" to push oil markets back above $100 a barrel, and that storm is unlikely to form.

"There is no spare capacity anywhere", he said. "But we shouldn't ignore the possibility and the willingness to keep prices from going too high too quick, which would arguably cut into their long-term demand prospects", he said.

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