With that said, at this point, guidance indicates the Louisiana Coast has the best chance to see a landfalling tropical system on Saturday.
Simultaneous to initiating advisories on the system and an official storm track, tropical storm and storm surge watches will likely be issued for portions of the Gulf Coast, including portions of Louisiana, and the possibility of a hurricane watch is also in the mix given the late Tuesday computer model runs.
The parish is just southeast of New Orleans and includes numerous city's suburbs. The system was expected to become a tropical depression by Thursday morning, a tropical storm by Thursday night and a hurricane on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center. PTC Two should form into a tropical depression soon.
The deluge may have just been a preview of more serious flooding situation from Tropical Storm or Hurricane Barry, which could affect the area into the weekend.
The waters in the Gulf of Mexico are warm enough to support further strengthening as they sit in the low 30s - well above the 26.5 C temperature needed to fuel a tropical system.
The National Hurricane Center's forecast for an unnamed potential tropical cyclone as of 10 a.m. CDT on Wednesday, July 10.
A majority of the Euro (see Fig. 2) and GFS (see Fig. 3) ensemble members show a projected landfall of a strong topical storm somewhere between the upper-Texas coast and Louisiana by the weekend.
"This is going to be a Louisiana event with coastal flooding and widespread, heavy rainfall, potentially impacting every part of the state", Edwards said in a new release.
The outlook from the National Weather Service calls for about eight inches of rain in New Orleans over coming days.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. However a disorganized system also tends to produce a larger area of heavy rain due to the lack of a tight circulation around the center.
Regardless of the classification this system develops into, Louisiana and MS are forecast to see very heavy rain - more than a foot in some places, Brink said.
Even more concerning, the Mississippi River in New Orleans is now forecast to crest near 20 feet on Saturday, the weather service said - and the average levee height for New Orleans is 20 feet, said meteorologist David Bernard of Fox8 in New Orleans. So the earliest our area would have any chance of getting residual rain would be late next week.