U.S. economists expect recession in 2020 or 2021

Stock markets rally on fresh trade talks hopes

President Trump Refutes Recession Fears, Praises US Econom

Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic.

The National Association for Business Economics survey said 38 percent of those surveyed believe a recession will begin in 2020 during the middle of the US presidential campaign, while 34 percent believe the economy will hit a recession in 2021.

"Consumers are working. At higher wages".

Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed, but the Democrats are trying to "will" the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election.

"I mean, the world is in a recession right now", he continued. "They are spending and they are saving".

Kudlow also looked to refocus attention on economic gains under Trump, saying on NBC, "We had some blockbuster retail sales, consumer numbers towards the back end of last week". And Wednesday, the bond markets sounded their own warning when the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds briefly fell below those on two-year Treasury bonds.

President Trump has been highly critical of Mr. Powell, as he places blame for any economic weakness on Fed for raising interest rates too much over the past 2 years.

Despite the recent market volatility, the Dow Jones industrial average is off 4.5 percent from an all-time high reached in mid-July and is still up 12 percent for the year.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on goods from many key US trading partners, from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada.

The Germany economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, according to figures released last week, and its central bank said on Monday that it could shrink again in the third quarter - indicating a recession.

Trump also wrote on Twitter, "Our economy is the best in the world, by far".

Economists polled by NABE expressed concern that US tariffs on China and other countries, as a well as higher federal budget deficits, could hurt economic growth.

Analysts are now waiting for Monday's decision as to whether the USA will allow China's contentious tech giant Huawei to purchase supplies from American companies.

"As the new week kicks off, stocks are in demand amid increased optimism over USA and China reaching a trade deal and as investors anticipate stimulus measures to shore up slowing economies", noted Fiona Cincotta, analyst at City Index trading group.

A survey by the National Association for Business Economics found almost 4 in 10 economists expect a recession next year, though an even larger share (48%) don't expect a downturn until 2021 or later.

"The fundamentals of the economy are very strong", White House counselor Kellyanne Conway told reporters, adding that "it's nice to see the media finally cover the Trump economy".

Another 2 per cent of those polled expect a recession to begin this year.

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