Tropical System Forecast To Move Into The Gulf This Week

FIRST ALERT FORECAST Better chance of rain Wednesday

Forecast FIRST ALERT FORECAST Better chance of rain Wednesday

A disturbance north of Hispaniola continues to move slowly northwest and now has a 50 percent chance for tropical development in the next five days. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers some slight development of the system as possible in the coming days.

A storm has to have a closed, defined center of circulation and winds of at least 39 miles per hour to be considered a tropical storm and get a name.

This system isn't expected to develop over the next few days as it moves very slowly to the west-northwest across the Bahamas.

The biggest system is Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which is far out in the Atlantic and does not pose any threat to land in the next couple days as it heads in the general direction of Ireland and Scotland, the National Hurricane Center says.

For the system nearest to the United States the see a 0% chance of formation into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, rising to 30% over the next 5 days. It has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical storm, forecasters predict.

If we do get a named storm out of any of the areas of disturbed weather, the next name would be Humberto. The NHC expects to see slow development over the weekend where it has a 20 percent chance of tropical development.

There already is moisture in the forecast with 30-40% chance of rain Saturday and 50-60% Sunday. As September carries on so does a more summertime feel. It will remain warm and muggy with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values near 103.

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