Oct manufacturing PMI improves, Q4 GDP growth seen accelerating


TP ICAP hosts celebrities such as Prince Harry as its annual fundraising drive

"PMI data for October showed a continuation of manufacturing sector weakness in India, with sales growth softening to the slowest in two years", noted Pollyanna De Lima, principal economist at IHS Markit. Workers on strike do not collect a paycheck, so they do not count as employed. A 40-day GM strike, which took 46,000 autoworkers out of the workforce, was expected to serve as a bigger drag on the job market.

Overall, job growth has slowed in 2019 to a monthly average of 167,000, compared to 223,000 previous year, as the supply of available workers dwindles and skittish companies hold off on adding workers amid concerns about the US-China trade war. "USA ROCKS!" he wrote, claiming that, adjusted for the prior months' revisions and the GM strike, October's report showed a total of 303,000 new jobs.

The dollar was little against a basket of currencies on the employment report, while US Treasury prices fell. From January through September of 2019, the month average gain has been +167,000, a reduction of one-quarter (-26.0%).

The healthy employment gains reassured investors amid uncertainty around the trade war between the U.S. and China and talk of a looming economic slowdown.

The UK manufacturing sector activity contraction slowed sharply in the month of October, the latest survey report from IHS Markit showed this Friday. However, even with the boost from stockpiling, the PMI remained below the 50.0 mark that separates contraction from expansion for the sixth consecutive month - the longest run in contraction territory since 2012.

However, the survey participants cited that external conditions became more challenging at the start of the fourth quarter, which caused export orders to decline for a second successive month.

The early 2019 stockpiling boom spurred a brief increase in British manufacturing output which gave way to a sharp downturn in mid-2019, exacerbated by a slowing global economy. However, excluding autos, manufacturing employment actually increased for the month. "Growth has been supported by the continued strength of household consumption, underpinned, in turn, by a thriving labor market".

The resilient labor market tamed expectations for a deep economic retrenchment, and bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve taking a more neutral stance on another rate cut. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that the economy grew just 1.9% between July and September.

With the labor market steadily pushing up wages, consumers are likely to continue carrying the economy. Small changes in labor force participation can have major effects on the economy: Because of this increase, 2.1 million more prime-age adults were in the labor force in October compared to if the participation rate remained at November 2016 levels. Wage growth peaked at 3.4 per cent in February.

The unemployment rate increased slightly from a 50-year low of 3.5% to 3.6%, according to statistics released by the Labor Department on Friday.

With the unemployment rate low and the economy in a decadelong expansion, diners are as hungry as ever for tacos, said Michael Mabry, chief development officer of Fuzzy's Taco Shops, a Fort Worth, Texas chain of 150 restaurants in 17 states.

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